Friday, May 20, 2005

Wot, not more Budget!? Yep! 'Cos there are a couple of important/interesting points you might have missed.

Alex Sundakov says the real issue in Budget expenditure is the quality of spending. This is very similar to the question that corporate boards have to grapple with when they decide whether to pay dividends to shareholders, or retain earnings for investment in the company. The rule is the same: if you cannot create enough value, return the cash. ... There is little doubt that there are big chunks of the Budget which would fail the test of money being better spent by the Government than by the people themselves: ongoing investments in low-return business schemes, such as Kiwibank, dubious corporate welfare schemes delivered through NZ Trade and Enterprise, untargeted social assistance programmes providing welfare to the middle classes and on and on. In other words, if the Government had followed the principle of giving back money it could not spend well, there would have been room for both more significant and timely tax reductions, a surplus, and possibly more spending on core services.
Sometimes we can get fooled by the numbers, and not question what they really mean. For instance: the government has just announced that it expects to achieve net savings of $23.2 million over the next four years as more people on the Domestic Purposes Benefit move off benefit to take up work opportunities. According to Lindsay Mitchell, "that is $5.8 million each year - a mere quarter of a percent of the current cost. Or put another way, government expects around 279 people to move of the DPB and get a job."
A $300 million Budget boost for land transport is expected to pay for about 7km of road. [$300 million and we just shift the bottleneck a few kilometres down the road! We pay a lot for our supposed mobility.]
The little things you don't notice: New Zealand will fight the spread of weapons of mass destruction around the world with $3 million over four years. The money will go to a group set up by leaders of the world's biggest economies, the Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction.
Language Line, which offers interpreting over the phone in 37 languages, is to be permanently funded and some $4.1 million over four years will be set aside to hire ethnic advisers in Wellington, Christchurch and Auckland. [Bet Plunket would have loved that money!]
OK, enough of Budget.
Can media use stifle emotional maturity? The lines between home, work and play are blurring as never before. Author Michael Bugeja went online to discuss his new book, "Interpersonal Divide: The Search for Community in a Technological Age," an analysis of the void that develops between people when they spend too much time in virtual rather than real communities. Pop sociology, but points to some important trends.
China has formed a special force of undercover online commentators to try to sway public opinion on controversial issues on the Internet, a newspaper said yesterday. China has struggled to gain control over the Internet as more and more people gain access to obtain information beyond official sources. The country has nearly 100 million Internet users, according to official figures, and the figure is rising. A special force of online commentators had already been operating in Suqian city in the eastern coastal province of Jiangsu since April, the Southern Weekend said. Their job is to defend the government when negative comments appear on Internet bulletin boards and chatrooms. "They will guide public opinion as ordinary netizens."
A-tissue, firewall fall down. I only post this because a large number of computer owners are using the ZoneAlarm firewall. The latest versions of ZoneAlarm are causing a lot of headaches.
From personal (and bitter) experience, I make two suggestions. a) If you are installing an upgrade of ZoneAlarm, UNINSTALL the old version first. b) Switch to another firewall, such as Sygate (which I use - it's also free).
What's the difference between allowing a male teacher to supervise girls' changing sheds, and a homosexual male teacher being allowed to supervise boys' changing sheds? The Catholic Church in Ireland has decided there's no difference - both are a no-no.
Tail-out: The US government has decided it doesn't want billboards in space. Unfortunately, the Federal Aviation Authority doesn't actually have any means of enforcing that. Reminds me of the old ditty: I think that I shall never see / a billboard lovely as a tree. / Indeed, unless the billboards fall / I'll never see a tree at all.

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Personally, I don't think today's Budget will have any appreciable effect on the coming election. Most of the spending will not kick in till well after the election, and come September I suspect people will look at each other and decide nothing much has changed economically. If anything, they will be worse off, because the rise in personal tax thresholds is pathetic, and won't take effect till 2008. Dr Cullen admitted in parliament earlier this week that to honour Labour's 1999 pledge that no more than 5% of workers would be in the "rich people's" tax bracket, the top threshold would have to move to $80,000. To raise the threshold to only $63,672 is going to look very bad, particularly to those earning an "average" wage above that and still struggling to make ends meet. Exactly the same goes for small businesses. Dr Cullen claims that changes to business taxation amount to a 2% tax cut - but it's all smoke and mirrors, because that has mostly to do with arcane tax regimes way beyond the average business. The main points of today's Budget are covered here.
Justice Minister Phil Goff has introduced a Bill to parliament which raises the income threshold for legal aid and introduces a new repayments and debt management regime. More people will qualify for legal aid. The costs of additional grants will be partly offset by requiring a higher proportion of legal aid recipients to repay some, or all, of their grant. This Legal Services Amendment Bill (No. 2) will increase the pool of those eligible for legal aid from 765,000 to 1.2 million. Approximately 22,000 legal aid recipients will be required to repay their legal aid grant.
A nationwide programme to help parents prevent stress and trauma for children facing parental conflict and separation is being funded in this year's Budget. It provides $6.2 million over the next four years to run programmes through the Family Court to help separating parents reduce conflict and the stress that separation can cause for their children. The programme will consist of two two-hour sessions, held a week apart, presented by a psychologist or counsellor and a family lawyer. Children do not attend, and couples attend separate sessions.
The programme has been criticised by National Party families spokeswoman Judith Collins. She says National will grant the Youth Court power to issue new parenting orders, whereby parents whose children have been involved in offending, anti-social behaviour or truancy are required to attend regular counselling and guidance sessions on parenting skills in courses lasting up to three months. The Court may add other requirements lasting for up to 12 months, including curfews, controls over association with others, and school attendance.
And ACT's Muriel Newman is concerned that despite three attempts, she has been unable to get the concept of shared parenting accepted by government. “The problem of conflict between separating parents, which creates victims out of their children, stems from the antiquated custody laws which Labour has refused to change. Under these laws, two parents who are considered equal with regard to their responsibility for their children before their relationship breaks down, are no longer considered to be equal afterwards. The mother is awarded sole custody of the children and dad is charged child support and has an occasional visit with his children."
Mobile phones are more important to young people than TV, new research by Aim Proximity shows. The research, commissioned by BBDO Europe and Proximity Worldwide, looked at 3000 mobile phone users aged 15-35 in 15 countries (not New Zealand). It found: * Twice as many would keep their mobile over their TV if forced to choose; * Up to 20 per cent, depending on country, admitted they’ve answered their mobile during sex; * 38 percent would go home for a forgotten phone before they’d go back for a wallet; * 63 percent wouldn’t lend their mobile to a friend for the day. * Most importantly from a marketer’s point of view, 78 percent leave their phones on and in reach for 16 hours or more a day and 53 percent have responded to a brand promotion on their mobile.
If it worked for Saul of Tarsus, Augustine of Hippo and George W. of Texas, then NBC must figure it'll work for a struggling TV network. The US network is going big on Biblically themed dramas. "Revelations" began airing in April. On Monday, NBC announced a new reality show called "Three Wishes," an inspirational hour to be hosted by Christian music superstar Amy Grant. Also coming this fall is a sitcom called "My Name Is Earl," which isn't overtly religious but features an ex-con determined to turn his life around and make amends to all the people he has wronged. It's a bit of a switch for a network that soared to the top of the ratings with such racy fare as "Friends" and "Will & Grace."

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

As we approach the Budget tomorrow, it might be worth recalling Gresham's Law: The theory that bad money drives good money out of circulation. [Coined by economist Henry Dunning Macleod in 1858 after Sir Thomas Gresham, a financial advisor to Queen Elizabeth I and founder of the Royal Exchange in London.] It is also worth observing that Albert Jay Nock expanded it to mean that bad ideas, art, etc. drive out good.
In similar vein, the Seven Sins according to Gandhi come to mind: Politics without principle; Wealth without work; Commerce without morality; Pleasure without conscience; Education without character; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice.
When it comes to unemployment, there are definitely lies, damned lies and statistics. What the Minister didn't tell us when he announced the other day that unemployment is now down to 83,000. According to Statistics NZ, there are actually 161,200 people "officially jobless" (the difference between the official "unemployment" figures and the "jobless figures" is that many of the people on the jobless measurement are available for work, but not actively seeking it; reasons for not actively seeking work range from people being discouraged because they lack the skills needed, or are the wrong age, or that the right work is not available in their area, or they are only looking for jobs in their newspaper). And then there are the "underemployed". According to Stats NZ, 71,200 people are employed part time but would prefer to work more hours.
If good wines need time to age properly, the same could said of speeches. This speech by John O'Sullivan on "Conservatism, Democracy and National Identity", is required reading for those interested in the relationship between Conservatism and freedom. "Conservatives need to be reintroduced to ideas which they dimly recall but whose power and authority they have forgotten. One of those ideas is Conservatism itself," he says. O'Sullivan goes on to outline brilliantly the basic tenets of Conservatism. His section on multiculturalism is particularly outstanding, and though delivered in 1999 is even more relevant today.
A Gallup poll released yesterday shows that overall, 77 percent of Americans think the country's moral values are on the decline -- a figure that has risen 10 points in three years. There is a partisan gap, however. The number stands at 82 percent among Republican respondents and 72 percent among Democrats. The biggest no-no remains the illicit affair: 93 percent of Americans find romantic dalliances between married men and women morally unacceptable. About 70 percent think the death penalty is morally acceptable, a figure has risen steadily since 2001, when it stood at 63 percent. A slim majority of Americans do not support abortion -- with 51 percent calling it morally wrong, 40 percent accepting it and 8 percent saying their opinion "depends on the situation." Four years ago, 45 percent called abortion wrong. A majority felt "homosexual relations" were unacceptable, with 52 percent of the respondents disapproving.
Do people the world over understand family to be the same as we do in the West? Is it universal? Swedish sociologist Göran Therborn has done a massive survey of family structures around the world to come up with some answers to these questions, which presents in a new book, Between Sex and Power. Therborn distinguishes five major family systems: European (including New World and Pacific settlements), East Asian, sub-Saharan African, West Asian/North African and Subcontinental, with a further two more "interstitial" ones, Southeast Asian and Creole American. Although each of the major systems is the heartland of a distinctive religious or ethical code--Christian, Confucian, Animist, Muslim, Hindu--and the interstitial ones are zones of overlapping codes, the systems themselves form many "geocultures" in which elements of a common history can override contrasts of belief within them. All traditional family systems, Therborn argues, have comprised three regimes: of patriarchy, marriage and fertility (crudely summarized--who calls the shots in the family, how people hitch up, how many kids result).
Tail-out: Evolutionary scientists have never had difficulty explaining the male orgasm, closely tied as it is to reproduction. But the Darwinian logic behind the female orgasm has remained elusive. Women can have sexual intercourse and even become pregnant without experiencing orgasm. So what is its evolutionary purpose? In a new book, Dr. Elisabeth A. Lloyd, a philosopher of science and professor of biology at Indiana University, takes on 20 leading theories and finds them wanting. The female orgasm, she argues, has no evolutionary function at all.

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Last week I highlighted how the average wage earner has now migrated into the upper tax bracket of the supposedly rich. Here's an illustration of the consequences from Michael Reid. "My mechanic of many years' standing has been in business since 1970. He has worked hard to build-up a reputable and viable small business. As I was paying the bill for repairs to my vehicle, he commented that in consultation with his accountant, he was paying around 25% all-up tax in 1970. That figure is now estimated to have ballooned to around 60%. It is scarcely viable for him to keep operating and to do so, he must increase the volume of work and work longer hours, which of course, takes its toll on both him as well as increases his tax payments still further. If this is true - and I don't doubt it for a moment - and his story is repeated for small businesses all over the country, what's going on is nothing short of robbery. No wonder Labour is sitting on such a huge surplus!"
Marriage statistics released today by Statistics NZ show that the trend towards men and women entering marriage at a later year is increasing. The media age for women in their first marriage is 28 years, and for men just under 30 years. The number of marriages is holding more of less steady, but with increasing population the rate fell slightly last year (not quite the apocalyptic version presented by the newspapers this morning).
In Saturday's Herald, columnist Sandra Patterson highlighted how feminists have now effectively achieved all the goals they set themselves back in the 1970s. Among the women who attended or addressed meetings up and down the country were Helen Clark, Sylvia Cartwright, Marilyn Waring, Cath Tizard, Ros Noonan and Margaret Wilson, who are now some of the most powerful leaders in New Zealand. Their long-term agenda was compiled by Kay Goodger, who is now a senior adviser in the Ministry of Social Development. Goodger called on the radical feminists of the day to do everything they could to replace or sideline the traditional family. "The family distorts all human relationships by imposing on them the framework of economic compulsion, social dependence and sexual repression," she wrote. "Our goal must be to create economic and social institutions that are superior to the present family." The steps she considered that Goodger concluded needed to be taken to overhaul society included making abortion free and on demand, integrating sex education into all levels of the school system and ensuring birth control was freely available. Coercive family laws should be abolished, she wrote, adding that "the rearing, social welfare and education of children should become the responsibility of society rather than individual parents." De facto relationships should have the same status legally and socially as marriage; all laws "victimising" prostitutes should be abolished; and 24-hour childcare should be introduced to free women from "domestic slavery". Mission accomplished.
More than 10 years after meeting their birth mothers, adopted children are still "walking on eggshells" around them. That's the finding of research by Massey University student Julee Browning, who has made what she believes is the first study of the long-term consequences of reuniting adopted children with their birth families in adulthood. New Zealand was the first Western country to allow adopted children to contact their birth parents, under a law passed in 1985. Since then, 31,186 adoptees have used the law to get their original birth certificates, and 8648 birth parents have obtained identifying information about their adopted children. Ms Browning found that, even after many years, adults who had been adopted out as children almost never felt completely at home in the families of their birth parents.
It's been a punishing week for education administrators, what with NZQA CEO Karen Van Rooyen resigning...ndd David Benson-Pope falling on his sword over the tennis ball allegations.
And late last week Deborah Coddington highlighted the madness that passes for teacher training at the Christchurch College of Education. How do you like these sample questions from a list of classroom questions? " * How can you tell if someone is heterosexual (straight)? * What causes heterosexuality? * Is it possible that heterosexuality stems from a neurotic fear of others of the same sex? * 40 percent of married couples get divorced. Why is it so difficult for straights to stay in long-term relationships? * 99 percent of reported rapists are heterosexual. * Why are straights so sexually aggressive? * The majority of child molesters are heterosexual. Do you consider it safe to expose children to heterosexual teachers, scout leaders, coaches, etc?"
The number of New Zealanders waiting for a first assessment on the need for surgery has skyrocketed by 13 percent in the last six months. ACT MP Heather Roy has obtained from the Ministry of Health under the Official Information Act and written Parliamentary Questions, which show that in the six months to the end of March, the number of Kiwis being assessed for surgery has ballooned by 6,245 to 119,696.
Young Aucklanders are signing up for mortgages of up to $1 million, sparking fears an entire generation could be heading for a cash crisis. With the median price for a house in Auckland now at $372,000 - a rise of 16 per cent in the past year - many young couples are being saddled with massive loans they can barely afford, say experts. "It's like we've lost touch with the reality of what can go wrong," says one advisor. "All it would take is for someone to lose their job, get sick, have another baby and suddenly they have a problem."
More than anything else, the current international uproar over allegations (now discredited) that US soldiers deliberately desecrated the Koran, shows the difference in seriousness with which Muslims and Christians treat their holy books. When The Washington Times in 2002 reported that Muslims holed up in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity had used the Bible as toilet paper, Christian leaders there complained under their breath. Christian and Muslim leaders in America were silent. When, on the first season of Survivor, Rudy Boesch said, "The only reason I'd bring a Bible out here is if … I needed toilet paper," it was played for laughs. There were no deadly riots. When an NBC sitcom plot included a joke about flushing a consecrated Communion wafer down the toilet after a Catholic funeral Mass, there were no riots, even though Roman Catholics believe that the host is the actual body of Christ. If a Christian leader had called for a boycott over such matters, the cry would go out that we are living in a theocracy and trying to ram our beliefs down other people's throats. Are we prepared, though, to say that to Muslims? Or would it offend multi-cultural sensitivities to criticise them?
Traditionally, human technologies have been aimed outward, to control our environment, resulting in, for example, clothing, agriculture, cities and airplanes. Now, however, we have started aiming our technologies inward and using them to shape human beings. We are transforming our minds, our memories, our metabolisms, our personalities and our progeny. Serious people, including some at the National Science Foundation in Arlington, consider such modification of what it means to be human to be a radical evolution -- one that we direct ourselves. They expect it to be in full flower in the next 10 to 20 years.
Public-opinion researchers in the US are having trouble taking the nation's temperature because of the rising rate of people who have nothing but a cellphone in the house.
Labour approved a discussion paper that proposed legalising brother-sister sex for over-20-year-olds, according to official documents released by National’s Law and Order spokesman, Tony Ryall. “When asked in Parliament this morning why he had approved the paper, Justice Minister Phil Goff said ‘because it was an issue’. Official documents show that Labour’s advisers wanted to remove brother-sister sexual relationships for those over 20 from the offence of ‘incest’. The advisers also suggested this may mean that a pregnancy arising out of a brother-sister relationship would no longer be grounds for a lawful abortion.
A pioneer researcher into the connection between abortion and breast cancer says an overwhelming amount of evidence collected in nearly 50 years of studies demonstrating a conclusive link has been systematically covered up by biased scientists, government agencies and the news media using fraudulent data to deceive women about potentially life-and-death decisions.
Meanwhile, French research shows that having an abortion may increase the risk of giving birth prematurely in subsequent pregnancies. The study found that women who gave birth very prematurely – at between 22 and 27 weeks gestation – were 70 per cent more likely to have had an abortion compared to those who gave birth within two weeks of their due date. Those who gave birth between 28 and 32 weeks were 40% more likely to have had an abortion, according to the study, published in the British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology.
While researching his soon-to-be published book 'Apostolic Genius', Alan Hirsch stumbled upon some notable discoveries by important observers of the global Christian scene. In 2001, Professor David B. Barrett and Todd M. Johnson had mentioned there were already 111 million Christians without a traditional local
church. According to Barrett, these Christians reject historical denominationalism and all restrictive central authority, and attempt to lead a life of following Jesus, seeking a more effective missionary lifestyle. They are the fastest-growing Christian movements in the world. Barrett estimates that by the year 2025, these movements will have around 581 million members, 120 million more than all Protestant movements together. Hirsh, who has invited all of Australia's missionary movements to a conference in Victoria, believes that these new Christian movements "are simply under the radar of traditional Christianity", at least as long as it holds on to the classical Constantine church structure (pastor + building + programme = church).

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