Thursday, September 15, 2005

The future government of New Zealand could be decided by a handful of voters in Epsom. And it looks seriously like National could win the battle but lose the war. I fear that the following is the likely scenario for Saturday:
On current polling, National looks on target to gain the greatest number of party votes (perhaps in the vicinity of 40%), which will give them around 50 seats in Parliament. United Future could gain 3-4 seats, and New Zealand First 7-8 seats. But Winston Peters has said NZ First will not go into coalition with either party. So a National-United Future coalition could be up to 5 seats short of a working majority.
The cold, hard fact is that National needs ACT to gain 4-5 seats. But ACT has almost no hope of doing that unless leader Rodney Hide wins the electorate seat of Epsom.
This is where the situation becomes bizarre. National has not only refused to give Rodney Hide an easy ride to a polling victory, it is actively campaigning against him. And Labour is so desperate to keep ACT out of Parliament, it has suggested that Labour supporters should also vote for the National candidate, Richard Worth. Without National's covert support, it is virtually impossible for Hide to win, which means National cannot muster the numbers to form a government. Why National is shooting itself in the foot, for the life of me I cannot imagine. The party is obviously banking on gaining an absolute majority of seats, which on all current indications looks a forlorn hope.
So Labour could be left to cobble together a coalition with the Greens, Progressive's one seat, United Future, and maybe the Maori Party.

A new book highlights a growing trend among New Zealanders in mid-life to change jobs rather than endure workplace misery, burn-out and boredom. You Don't Make A Big Leap Without A Gulp offers practical advice and tips about how to go about a major mid-life career change, and features the stories of a range of New Zealanders who've summoned the courage to make the transition. Authors Mike Fitzsimons and Nigel Beckford say they were inspired to write the book after hearing horror stories from fellow mid-lifers trapped in jobs they couldn't wait to leave. Fitzsimons says too many Kiwis endure work they don't like or they've done for too long: "According to recent workplace surveys, only 17% of Kiwi workers feel any sense of connection to where they work. Sixty-eight percent of us don't rate our boss or the management and only 25% of us are actually happy in our jobs. After a Christmas break, up to 1 in 14 of Kiwi workers visited an internet recruitment site to look at alternatives..." The case studies featured in the book include a corporate executive turned social worker, a publican turned university lecturer, a builder turned fly-fishing guide and a teacher turned lawyer.

A little-known law that prevents people marrying their sons-in-law or daughters-in-law is likely to be scrapped after a European Court ruling yesterday that it breaches human rights. The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg said that to deny in-laws the right to wed was a breach of their human right to marry and found a family.

A Chinese cosmetics company is using skin harvested from the corpses of executed convicts to develop beauty products for sale in Europe, an investigation by the Guardian has discovered. Agents for the firm have told would-be customers it is developing collagen for lip and wrinkle treatments from skin taken from prisoners after they have been shot. The agents say some of the company's products have been exported to the UK, and that the use of skin from condemned convicts is "traditional" and nothing to "make such a big fuss about".

"In a world of religious wars, genocide, and terrorism, no one is naive enough to think that all moral beliefs are universal. But beneath such diversity, can we discern a common core — a distinct, universal, maybe even innate “moral sense” in our human nature?"

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Brussels has been given the power to compel British courts to fine or imprison people for breaking EU laws, even if the Government and Parliament are opposed. An unprecedented ruling yesterday by the supreme court in Europe gives Brussels the power to introduce harmonised criminal law across the EU, creating for the first time a body of European criminal law that all member states must adopt. The judgment by the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg was bitterly fought by 11 EU governments, including Britain, and marks a dramatic transfer of power from national capitals to Brussels. Diplomats said that it was political dynamite in many countries, but the European Commission welcomed the ruling, on a test case about environmental law, as a landmark that sets an important precedent.

Who is/are Generation Jones, and why do they matter this election? A new analysis of recent New Zealand political polling claims that the current voter vacillation is primarily driven by one demographic - Generation Jones, the large generation between the Baby Boomers and Generation X. US political analyst and consultant Jonathan Pontell, who conducted the study, said Generation Jones has the highest percentage of floating voters, which when combined with its huge size (29.8% of the electorate) is largely responsible for the volatility in the overall polling numbers. “Based on these new numbers, it seems clear that the winner on September 17 will be the party which is able to swing Jonesers to their side”, said Pontell. Jonesers also vote at higher rates (86% of all NZ Jonesers voted in the 2002 election, compared with 77% among all eligible NZ voters).

The surprising thing about New Orleans is not that the city should have been engulfed, but that it took so long for it to happen. Cities do not last. Those built in precarious places collapse. The rest are doomed to decay or suffer humanly induced destruction. It is only our historical myopia, which prevents most of us from seeing much of the past at once, that makes us think our cities are solid or enduring.

Nearly 20 years after the disastrous leak at the Chernobyl nuclear power station, it appears that the health outcomes have been far better than experts feared at the time. Fewer than 50 deaths have been directly attributed to radiation poisoning, although a report published recently by an international team of scientists estimates than abut 4000 may eventually die from radiation-induced cancer and leukaemia. The investigators found no evidence of decreased fertility and no increase in congenital malformations which can be attributed to the disaster.

A study published in the August edition of the Southern Medical Journal reveals that women who have abortions are at significantly higher risk of near and long term death than women who give birth. This contradicts the widely accepted opinion that abortion is safer than childbirth. Researchers discovered that women who had abortions were almost twice as likely to die in the following two years. They also discovered that the elevated mortality rate of aborting women persisted over at least eight years. This is the second large record-based study to find elevated mortality rates among women following an abortion. In 1997, a government funded study of maternal deaths in Finland sent a tremor of worry through family planning agencies when it revealed that in the first year following an abortion, aborting women were 252 percent more likely to die compared to women who delivered and 76 percent more likely to die compared to women who had not been pregnant. Many of the extra deaths were due to suicide.
And in Russian, where lives are shorter and poorer than they were under communism, women have more abortions than births to avoid the costs of raising children, according to the country's highest-ranking obstetrician. About 1.6 million women had an abortion last year, a fifth of them under the age of 18, and about 1.5 million gave birth, said Vladimir Kulakov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. ``Many more'' abortions weren't reported.

The following is so disturbing, I can scarcely bear to report it. "The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has demanded that Ukrainian authorities seriously investigate claims that newborn children are being stolen for adoptions or for their body parts. The PACE rapporteur, Ruth-Gaby Vermot-Mangold, says that she was concerned about the fate of more than 300 babies. Requests for information by family members have been thwarted by bureaucracy, incompetence and even threats of physical violence. Hospital authorities vehemently deny the allegations. The London Times has highlighted two cases in Maternity Hospital No 6 in Kharkov which newborns were taken away immediately after birth. Their parents were told that the child had been stillborn. However, there are many suspicious errors in the paperwork for these cases. When the hospital was forced to exhume the bodies of infants from a mass grave, it was discovered that many of them had had their internal organs removed. One possibility is that body parts are being sold for research into bio-products for medicine and cosmetics. Hospital authorities say flatly that there is no medical use for foetuses. However, the Times points out that the Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Kharkov advertises a vast range of human tissue for sale on its website. These include embyronic liver cells, foetal liver cells, ovary tissue, and cerebral tissue.

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Rodney Hide offers some interesting observations on the reliability of opinion polls: "In no other election have the polls varied so much, National ahead 7%, then Labour 8%, and then neck and neck and now National by 4% depending on whose poll you read. NZ used to be a pollsters paradise. Ask 10 voters in Queen Street and they would give you the same answers as 10 voters in Southland. We are now more diverse. Nearly half of all new Telecom connections refuse to go in the phone book, many young people just have cell phones and telephone ID has led people not to answer the phone to numbers they do not recognise. Pollsters claim to be able to rebalance by instructing callers to get 50/50 male/female, young/old, etc. But they cannot. What if the people who use only cell phones have different politics? Around 100,000 Chinese will vote this election. Mainland Chinese are never going to tell a caller how they will vote. Polls also do not tell us how strongly people hold views."

Attempts by Muslims to allow Sharia law to be applied in certain areas of the law in Ontario, Canada, have come to nothing. In January, the Washington Post reported that a Sharia court was on the verge of being established. However, the Premier of Ontario said yesterday, that all forms of religious arbitration -- including Islam's sharia law -- will be outlawed in Ontario. ''I've come to the conclusion that the debate has gone on long enough,'' Dalton McGuinty told The Canadian Press yesterday. ''There will be no sharia law in Ontario. There will be no religious arbitration in Ontario. There will be one law for all Ontarians.''

"We atheists have to accept that most believers are better human beings," writes Roy Hattersley. "The Salvation Army has been given a special status as provider-in-chief of American disaster relief. But its work is being augmented by all sorts of other groups. Almost all of them have a religious origin and character. Notable by their absence are teams from rationalist societies, free thinkers' clubs and atheists' associations - the sort of people who not only scoff at religion's intellectual absurdity but also regard it as a positive force for evil... Civilised people do not believe that drug addiction and male prostitution offend against divine ordinance. But those who do are the men and women most willing to change the fetid bandages, replace the sodden sleeping bags and - probably most difficult of all - argue, without a trace of impatience, that the time has come for some serious medical treatment. Good works, John Wesley insisted, are no guarantee of a place in heaven. But they are most likely to be performed by people who believe that heaven exists. The correlation is so clear that it is impossible to doubt that faith and charity go hand in hand.

As Americans set new records for charitable giving in response to Hurricane Katrina, some fundraisers are seeing a principle confirmed: when the suffers are perceived as innocent victims, donors respond generously. On the other hand, giving patterns suggest donors are losing patience with chronic problems such as poverty, in which suffering is arguably exacerbated by questionable choices. Private donations are shrinking for homeless shelters, AIDS-related services and programs for troubled youth, to cite just a few examples. In religious circles and beyond, some see a troubling trend: Compassion is increasingly being reserved for those who appear to have done no wrong. Charities must now frame issues so that donors believe they are giving to innocent victims.

There is less war than there used to be. Around the world, about 25 places - depending how you count them - are now at war, down from a peak of more than 50 in the early 1990s. In terms of the number of people killed in battle, the world is at a hundred-year low. New conflicts sometimes start up, like Nepal's, but for every new conflict, two old ones are going out of business.

There appears to be an effort by some liberals to tie abortion and the gay agenda to the US Constitution's guarantee of religious freedom. At a recent news conference, several feminist, homosexual and religious-left groups combined their rhetoric to claim that abortion and homosexuality are religious freedoms and part of their right to worship the way they want to. Phyllis Snyder, president of the National Council of Jewish Women, maintained that legalized abortion actually protects religious freedom. "This freedom, guaranteed by the Constitution, is strengthened by the separation of religion and the state," she said. However, Rob Schenck, president of the National Clergy Council, says "you can't justify taking human life because it's a religious belief." Schenck called it a new strategy by the left to co-opt abortion... as tenets of religious freedom."

This is the golden age of the internet, a time of glorious anarchy where information is free and anyone, rich or poor, can blog their views to the world. But government and big business are moving in - the clampdown has started.

Monday, September 12, 2005

In the midst of the babble of election campaigning, it's very refreshing to hear a politician stand back and take a longer view. I feel Marc Alexander's comments this week well worth passing on:
"Did the last three years contribute to or curtail our progress as a nation? The economists tell us we are better off. But life is more than hands exchanging wads of cash. It’s more than products and services. These are no more than the baubles of our environment ... in a sense, the clothing of our culture. It tells us how we live, but nothing about why. ... My own view is contained in a simple truth: While we may rationalise everything (even down to the chemicals that carry messages to our brain) no government, however well meaning, can replace those things that give true meaning and significance to our lives. For example, no policy, no Act of Parliament, no legislation, can ever adequately explain the feeling that a parent has for their child. The bonds of compassion, friendship and even love that we have for each other may be encouraged or stymied by laws, but ultimately it is not about bricks and mortar but our collective journey of individual explorations beyond the horizon of our hearts which we then bring as experiences into our communities. It is our shared national history in the making. The catch, as I see it, is that if we resile from responsibility for our material and social wellbeing and accept the beneficence of government, the spirit that fuels our aspirations will be snuffed out. Life’s deeper meaning loses its colour and lustre – only to be replaced by material distractions. This explains why so many embrace self-destructive amusements to try to feel anything at all. Paradoxically, these same people avoid connecting with their families by watching TV reality shows about families! I firmly believe people are being short changed in getting what they want out of life. Instead of examining what the government can do, we should examine what we can do. We need to have a close look at the state of our enthusiasm for life. Our minds can show us how to do this but it is the strength of our passion that shows us why. Instead of sinking into a Gordian knot of cynicism leading to despair, we can rise to be the change we want to see! ... We have many statistics to judge our country: population (4.1 million); unemployment (3.7 per cent); GDP ($145 billion). We also have telling social indicators that are more descriptive: a Maori suicide rate of 12.6 per 100,000; and a crime rate of 1.779.657 individual and household victimisations. If we were to look, there would be a number to describe almost anything - except those things that matter most. There are no statistics that measure the bonds of our marriages, love for our children, or the bittersweet tears when they leave home and embark on the adventure of life... The potency of our friendships, our community spirit and our empathy with those we reach out to – all the things that make our country our home: these defy and provide significance beyond the calculations of the statisticians, and for good reason. These things – the things that matter – are the very lifeblood of what it means to be a Kiwi. They can only be felt. Governments come and go, leaving a footprint on our lives and in a broader sense, our history. Each seems to increase its enthusiasm to extend its influence, all the while diminishing our freedoms. It may sound trite but we all must accept the cards that Providence deals to us. Our choice is not just about how to play the hand, but how much of that hand we want the Government to play for us." (This is not online yet, but presumably will be soon at Marc's website, http://www.marc-alexander-mp.org/marc_my_words.htm)

The American Atheists organization says President Bush should stop urging prayer for Hurricane Katrina victims because it violates the Constitution. Ellen Johnson, president of the group said Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Bush "should not be violating the Constitution by telling people to pray for the victims of Hurricane Katrina. It's unconstitutional for government officials to be promoting religion; and besides, judging from the speed of some relief efforts, officials should be busy working instead of preaching."

Scientists are to carry out the first British experiments on human embryos that would create a baby with three biological parents - two mothers and a father. Researchers from Newcastle University are to be allowed to fuse the contents of two human eggs to create an egg in effect derived from two women that could be fertilised with the sperm of a man. The aim eventually is to use the technique to overcome a form of inherited disease resulting from genetic damage to the tiny "power houses" or mitochondria of the cell, which are inherited from the mother.

Nigel Cameron, a noted British ethicist, says the depth of the challenge presented by new biotechnologies could hardly be better illustrated than in the prospect of an artificial womb. "Is creating children with artificial wombs having children at all, or is it a kind of manufacturing of children? It is deeply dangerous." Here is the point: A technology that may have benefits sets up a new situation, in which its perils are also open to us. The world changes when something as radical as in vitro fertilization, or sex selection, or—down the line—techno-wombs, becomes available. And we shall be tempted (a good word to use here) to slide downhill into the commodification of our children just because technology has made it possible. At least, we shall if we can't get some radical Christian thinking done about these things ahead of time.>br>
Three Indonesian women who ran a Christian holiday club have been jailed for three years. Dr Rebekka Zakaria, Eti Pangesti and Ratna Bangun were sentenced by an Indonesian court after allowing Muslim children to attend the club in West Java. The women were found guilty of seeking to convert the children despite having the children's full parental consent. The charges were brought by a local branch of the Indonesian Council of Muslim Clerics. Jeff Hammond of Bless Indonesia Today reported that "The ladies' witnesses and judges were constantly under threats of violence from hundreds of Islamic radicals". The developments appear to be part of a strategy of incremental Islamisation by radicals who have failed to gain legislative support for Sharia law.

A media watch group is claiming that search engine giant, Yahoo, gave the Chinese government access to emails sent from a journalist's personal web account, helping land him a 10-year jail sentence. Shi Tao, an editorial department head at the Contemporary Business News in China's Hunan Province, had sent information on the Tiananmen Square massacre anniversary. He was convicted of divulging state secrets by a court in the provincial capital, Changsha, last April, according to Reporters Without Borders, a French press freedom organisation. The Yahoo emails were used as material evidence in the conviction. "We already knew that Yahoo collaborates enthusiastically with the Chinese regime in questions of censorship, and now we know it is a Chinese police informant as well," the group says. Yahoo defended its actions. "Just like any other global company, Yahoo must ensure that its local country sites must operate within the laws, regulations and customs of the country in which they are based," says Mary Osako, a Yahoo spokeswoman.

A new survey of churchgoing trends in Britain predicts that just two per cent of the population will attend Sunday services by 2040. In three decades churchgoing will plummet by two-thirds while Mosque attendance will double, Peter Brierley, executive director of Christian Research says. "The story behind [the findings] is how few young people are being attracted to church." Rt Revd Nigel McCulloch, Bishop of Manchester said "These statistics need to … galvanise the Church into realising that it must communicate the gospel where people are or we will not deserve to have a Church."

New Zealand will face tough competition from other countries in a worldwide shortage of skilled labour that is only going to get worse, say immigration experts. The Department of Labour told an immigration conference this year that 70 million people would retire in OECD countries over the next 25 years to be replaced by just five million workers. Paul Spoonley, a Massey University professor of sociology, told the Herald the loss of working age populations was going to be enormous in some countries. The United States was forecasting a shortage of seven to 10 million workers within 20 years, he said. In New Zealand the fertility rate of 1.9 was well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per childbearing-aged women. The country was going to have to compete to attract skilled workers with other countries such as Australia and Canada. "New Zealand is already struggling to keep up as regards salary levels and the competition is only going to increase for all advanced economies."

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger says he will veto a bill to allow gay marriage in the state and said the issue should be decided by the courts or by voters directly but not by the Democrat-controlled legislature.

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