Friday, July 29, 2005
The High Court has apparently delivered a king hit to brothel bylaws around the country. The court in Christchurch is understood to have come down in favour of a brothel owner who challenged the Christchurch City Council's bylaws restricting brothels to an inner-city zone. If the decision stands, it will effectively allow brothels anywhere in the city. This report is by word of mouth, as the news is too recent to have hit the media yet. If confirmed, I assume that the Council will take the matter to the Court of Appeal, otherwise it could dump the bylaws of all other councils in the country into the waste basket.
Wheeeee! Three political polls in 24 hours! A lot of number crunching. What do we make of them? Has Labour suddenly bounced back - has National really slipped so badly in a couple of weeks?
The volatility of the polling figures raises some interesting (and important) questions which I haven't seen answered anywhere yet.
Either:
a) The NZ public is so fickle and driven by single-issue items, that a minor "stumble" by a party leader, or one single policy release, can trigger huge shifts in public opinion. (If this is the case, why did the massive stumbles by Labour in the first 4 months of this year produce so little change in the polls of the time?)
b) The polls are skewed in their sampling; ie, polls pick up an unrepresentative number of voters for a particular party. (The polls of some survey companies do seem to have a tendency to favour a particular party - eg, the NBR poll often produces higher figures for NZ First than the other polls.)
c) What is the percentage of "Don't Knows"? TNS-TV3 said this week the DKs were 12 percent, consistent with their previous polls. I suspect the DKs are higher in other survey companies. It is probable that the current DKs will effectively choose the government come election day. Are they dimwitted; or confused; or cautious; or strategic thinkers? I suspect (although I have little hard evidence to back this up) they comprise a mixture of unsure and strategic thinkers.
d) Some survey companies try to push respondents who initially give a DK into stating a preference. That might have a bit more validity in the week of the election, but this far out it simply produces a result with suspect validity.
d) There is another group which the polling companies don't talk about who could have any greater effect on the election outcome. They are the people the polling companies can't contact, or who refuse to be interviewed. (They are not included among the DKs.) Reasons for not being contactable include: not home when phoned; don't have a phone (ie, too poor); mostly use a cell phone (the survey companies don't include cell phone numbers in their sampling). Refuseniks are a growing problem for survey companies - I am sure you can think of reasons why people won't talk to interviewers. Do all these people differ in their political views from the population at large? No-one knows, because no-one has done a study of them.
e) The major-minor party split is still holding up way too high in favour of the major parties, going on historical figures. This will be a most unusual election if maybe 10 percent of the vote doesn't slip away from the combined major parties to the minor parties.
f) Incidentally, all three polls released this week were not uniform in their direction. The TNS-TV3 poll actually showed an improvement for National on their previous poll.
The upshot of all this is that no-one can take anything for granted. There are simply more questions than answers at this stage.
Abortions in the UK have risen by almost 4,000 in 12 months, with a growing number of girls under 14 terminating pregnancies. Department of Health statistics yesterday showed that abortions in England and Wales rose to 185,400 last year, a figure that pro-life groups described as "staggering". Pregnancy advisory groups said the overall figures reflected the trend of women delaying families and having fewer children to concentrate on their careers and paying their mortgages. A total of 1,034 girls under the age of 15 had abortions last year; 877 were aged 14 and 157 were under 14. [Proportionately, New Zealand has a much higher abortion rate than the UK. For instance, 85 girls under 15 had an abortion here last year, while the total for all ages was 18,211.]
The IRA says it has ended its 'armed campaign' in Northern Ireland but says it was 'entirely legitimate'. Sinn Fean leader Gerry Adams says the IRA will pursue its aim through the political process from now on. [I guess only history will tell how well this holds.]
"Religion will play a dominant role in Iraq's new constitution, which will identify Islam as 'the main source' of the nation's laws," the Chicago Tribune reports today, quoting members of the drafting committee. "It will also state that no law will be permitted that contradicts Islam, language that could potentially see Iraq transformed into an Islamic state." Constitutional drafting committee chairman Humam Hamoudi says enshrining Shari'ah law into the constitution is necessary to gain support in the referendum to approve it. The referendum is scheduled for October. He also promised that Christians would be able to practice their religion. "The constitution will not impose anything on people," he said, according to The Washington Post. "Everyone can practice their freedom in their personal affairs according to their beliefs. But the identity of the community goes after the majority of people."
I can guarantee that the following would not take place in Iraq. (In fact, I'm still struggling to work out exactly what this press release means.) It comes from St Andrew's on The Terrace in Wellington, and is headed "Geering Lecturer Introduces 'Indecent Theology'". To quote: "Dr Marcella Althaus-Reid, the St Andrew's Trust for the Study of Religion and Society 2005 Geering Lecturer, has been as influential as she has been controversial in insisting that all theology is sexual theology. Drawing on the experiences of queers, the poor and Latin American spirituality, Dr Althaus-Reid will introduce "Indecent Theology" as she explores "sexuality, poverty and God" in four addresses at St Andrew's on the Terrace in the first fortnight of August. "All theology is sexual theology. Indecent theology is sexier than most," she says. And we wonder why Muslims think the western world has become decadent. [The item below makes it even clearer.]
The new fad in publishing is risqué adult-themed [as in, full-on sex] books written for teenagers and younger pre-teens. This trend is being fueled by the notion that today’s teenagers are sophisticated enough for such themes and that teenage sex is a good thing.
Wheeeee! Three political polls in 24 hours! A lot of number crunching. What do we make of them? Has Labour suddenly bounced back - has National really slipped so badly in a couple of weeks?
The volatility of the polling figures raises some interesting (and important) questions which I haven't seen answered anywhere yet.
Either:
a) The NZ public is so fickle and driven by single-issue items, that a minor "stumble" by a party leader, or one single policy release, can trigger huge shifts in public opinion. (If this is the case, why did the massive stumbles by Labour in the first 4 months of this year produce so little change in the polls of the time?)
b) The polls are skewed in their sampling; ie, polls pick up an unrepresentative number of voters for a particular party. (The polls of some survey companies do seem to have a tendency to favour a particular party - eg, the NBR poll often produces higher figures for NZ First than the other polls.)
c) What is the percentage of "Don't Knows"? TNS-TV3 said this week the DKs were 12 percent, consistent with their previous polls. I suspect the DKs are higher in other survey companies. It is probable that the current DKs will effectively choose the government come election day. Are they dimwitted; or confused; or cautious; or strategic thinkers? I suspect (although I have little hard evidence to back this up) they comprise a mixture of unsure and strategic thinkers.
d) Some survey companies try to push respondents who initially give a DK into stating a preference. That might have a bit more validity in the week of the election, but this far out it simply produces a result with suspect validity.
d) There is another group which the polling companies don't talk about who could have any greater effect on the election outcome. They are the people the polling companies can't contact, or who refuse to be interviewed. (They are not included among the DKs.) Reasons for not being contactable include: not home when phoned; don't have a phone (ie, too poor); mostly use a cell phone (the survey companies don't include cell phone numbers in their sampling). Refuseniks are a growing problem for survey companies - I am sure you can think of reasons why people won't talk to interviewers. Do all these people differ in their political views from the population at large? No-one knows, because no-one has done a study of them.
e) The major-minor party split is still holding up way too high in favour of the major parties, going on historical figures. This will be a most unusual election if maybe 10 percent of the vote doesn't slip away from the combined major parties to the minor parties.
f) Incidentally, all three polls released this week were not uniform in their direction. The TNS-TV3 poll actually showed an improvement for National on their previous poll.
The upshot of all this is that no-one can take anything for granted. There are simply more questions than answers at this stage.
Abortions in the UK have risen by almost 4,000 in 12 months, with a growing number of girls under 14 terminating pregnancies. Department of Health statistics yesterday showed that abortions in England and Wales rose to 185,400 last year, a figure that pro-life groups described as "staggering". Pregnancy advisory groups said the overall figures reflected the trend of women delaying families and having fewer children to concentrate on their careers and paying their mortgages. A total of 1,034 girls under the age of 15 had abortions last year; 877 were aged 14 and 157 were under 14. [Proportionately, New Zealand has a much higher abortion rate than the UK. For instance, 85 girls under 15 had an abortion here last year, while the total for all ages was 18,211.]
The IRA says it has ended its 'armed campaign' in Northern Ireland but says it was 'entirely legitimate'. Sinn Fean leader Gerry Adams says the IRA will pursue its aim through the political process from now on. [I guess only history will tell how well this holds.]
"Religion will play a dominant role in Iraq's new constitution, which will identify Islam as 'the main source' of the nation's laws," the Chicago Tribune reports today, quoting members of the drafting committee. "It will also state that no law will be permitted that contradicts Islam, language that could potentially see Iraq transformed into an Islamic state." Constitutional drafting committee chairman Humam Hamoudi says enshrining Shari'ah law into the constitution is necessary to gain support in the referendum to approve it. The referendum is scheduled for October. He also promised that Christians would be able to practice their religion. "The constitution will not impose anything on people," he said, according to The Washington Post. "Everyone can practice their freedom in their personal affairs according to their beliefs. But the identity of the community goes after the majority of people."
I can guarantee that the following would not take place in Iraq. (In fact, I'm still struggling to work out exactly what this press release means.) It comes from St Andrew's on The Terrace in Wellington, and is headed "Geering Lecturer Introduces 'Indecent Theology'". To quote: "Dr Marcella Althaus-Reid, the St Andrew's Trust for the Study of Religion and Society 2005 Geering Lecturer, has been as influential as she has been controversial in insisting that all theology is sexual theology. Drawing on the experiences of queers, the poor and Latin American spirituality, Dr Althaus-Reid will introduce "Indecent Theology" as she explores "sexuality, poverty and God" in four addresses at St Andrew's on the Terrace in the first fortnight of August. "All theology is sexual theology. Indecent theology is sexier than most," she says. And we wonder why Muslims think the western world has become decadent. [The item below makes it even clearer.]
The new fad in publishing is risqué adult-themed [as in, full-on sex] books written for teenagers and younger pre-teens. This trend is being fueled by the notion that today’s teenagers are sophisticated enough for such themes and that teenage sex is a good thing.
